The Myrtle Beach Real Estate Market Is Not Going To Crash

Video Highlights

  • Oct Single Family Homes Sold down 34%.  Pendings down 36%
  • Oct Condos Sold down 44%. Pendings down 36%
  • Inventory SFH & condo although significantly higher than LY, dipped a tiny bit
  • Only 744 RS SFH Pending right now.  That is 33.48% of homes on the market
  • Condo Market is actually outperforming SFH 804 pending for 38.78%
  • At the national level - Pendings down 31% Year over year
  • Numbers will get uglier because the 4th quarter of 2020 was very strong. So comping against that will be tough

Big news is the Fed Meeting this week

  • We should see a 75 Basis points hike this week
  • Goldman Sachs chief economist thinks there will be another 50 in December and potentially 25 in February.
  • So a little higher that first anticipated.  But it will hinge on the inflation and unemployment data
  • This could push interest rates to 8%.  Right now hovering around 7.25-7.32 range

So why will the market not Crash

  • Unlike 2008, we do not have a credit crisis. 
    • Roughly 37% of homes are paid for
    • 60%+ of mortgages are at 4% or lower rate
  • Inventory right now is sitting at:  SFH 2.3 months & Condos 2.2 months
  • In 2006 we had inventory growing every month for 3.5 years. until it peaked at almost 24 mths of inventory in summer of 2009.
    • Inventory right now has been growing but it will have to grow to a much higher rate and at a much faster rate for it to have a chance of a crash.
  • New listing inventory is down every month for the last 4 months or so
    • So Sellers are not desperate like they were in 2007 and are not flooding the market because of being upside down.
  • Days on Market in 2007 and 2008 was over 150 days. Right now its 60
  • Foreclosure starts are nothing compared to 2006-2010.  In 2nd quarter of 2009 it was over 800% higher than it is now.

Could the market still Crash?

  • The unknowns are how high will interest rates get?
  • How bad will the coming recession be?
  • How long with the federal reserve wait and how quickly will they react to a weak economy?
  • Those are variables we cannot control, but we will keep an eye on things.
  • Housing is not crashing.  It's just Stuck right now!!
This is definitely something I am keeping a very close eye on. 

Watch this video as Abe Safa & Greg Harrelson discuss how this is impacting our real estate market and what you can expect. 

If you have any questions or would like to discuss the market or your property, reach out to Abe at (843) 360-2145

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